Historical electricity risk curves

Report notes

1. The system operator is responsible for publishing the electricity risk curves (ERCs) as part of its security of supply forecasting function. The set of ERC’s established in 1 Aug 2019 are available under the show parameter and include, risk status boundaries, percentage risk curves (these have been established the longest), contingent storage release boundaries, and official conservation campaign triggers. These various curves are produced for New Zealand and the South Island. Please see https://www.transpower.co.nz/system-operator/security-supply-and-ercs for current ERCs and further information. The system operator inherited the responsibility for forecasting security of supply from the Electricity Commission, the Electricity Authority’s predecessor, in November 2010.

2. The Authority monitors the market response to shortage. This report tracks the history of the risk of shortage in the New Zealand electricity system, as reported by the system operator.

3. Hydro data (storage and/or inflows) is sourced from NZX hydro (data provided by NIWA) and is not available for download. Please see https://energy.nzx.com for more information. In this report controlled storage in the North Island includes Lake Taupo, and in the South Island, Lakes Tekapo, Pukaki, Hawea, and Te Anau and Manapouri.

4. The framework for monitoring security of supply has evolved through time, particularly with regard to the treatment of contingent storage and the volume of available contingent storage. These changes are marked with vertical grey lines. The current set of curves have included available contingent storage from 1 August 2019. On 27 Feb 2020, following Meridian’s announcement that it could fully utilise the consented contingent storage in Lake Pukaki, storage increased by a further 367 GWh. To accurately represent the new regime and changes to available contingent storage, step changes in storage, mean storage, and maximum storage were added. The mean storage represented in the report is no longer the mean of the historical data presented in this report, but an adjusted mean to reflect the change from this point forward (i.e. without changing what was presented in the past). Prior to the 1 Aug 2019 contingent storage was excluded from the framework. A change was made on 29 August 2018 to bring the treatment of Tekapo contingent storage into line with the excluded treatment of other contingent storage as detailed in the SoSFIP. This change removed 220 GWh of Tekapo contingent storage from controlled storage over summer (denoted as 1 October – 31 March).

5. The set of electricity risk curves are updated periodically including when there is a material change to the inputs. These updates are marked with a black triangle in the figure and have occurred for the following reasons:

   • 24 Jul 2019: Updated generation outages for the next eight months. Ohaaki capacity has returned to 40MW. Te Apiti capacity factor has returned to 0.342.
   • 01 Aug 2019: Incorporated new Security of Supply Information and Forecasting Policy. Updated generation outages for the next eight months.
   • 30 Sep 2019: Updated generation outages for the next eight months.
   • 30 Oct 2019: Updated HVDC transfer assumptions for 2020 HVDC outages and generation outages for the next eight months.
   • 18 Nov 2019: Updated HVDC transfer assumptions for 2020 HVDC outages and generation outages for the next eight months.
   • 17 Dec 2019: Updated generation outages for the next eight months.
   • 31 Jan 2020: Updated generation outages for the next eight months. Included thermal de-rating
   • 28 Feb 2020: Updated generation outages for the next eight months. Included thermal de-rating. Included additional Lake Pukaki contingent storage
   • 31 Mar 2020: Updated generation outages for the next eight months. Included thermal de-rating. Updated demand forecast
   • 17 Apr 2020: Updated generation outages for the next eight months. Demand derating for April 2020 due to COVID-19 Lockdown
   • 20 May 2020: Updated generation outages for the next eight months. COVID-19 demand reductions
   • 23 Jun 2020: Demand forecast updated to delay return of Tiwai Point potline 4. 50 MW reduction to available thermal generation applied in order to reflect confidential information provided to the System Operator. No thermal derating due to fuel supply.
   • 24 Jul 2020: Tiwai Exit in Aug 2021, Additional HLY unit Jul and Aug
   • 26 Aug 2020: Tiwai exit remains in Aug 2021, Outages updated
   • 16 Sep 2020: Tiwai exit remains in Aug 2021, outages updated and commissioning dates of new generation updated to reflect latest information
   • 21 Oct 2020: Tiwai exit remains in Aug 2021, outages updated
   • 27 Nov 2020: Tiwai exit remains in Aug 2021, outages updated
   • 22 Dec 2020: Tiwai exit remains in Aug 2021, outages updated, thermal deratings applied Jan 2021 - Dec 2021
   • 28 Jan 2021: Thermal fuel derating updated along with outages. Tiwai demand remains as the basecase going forward following the January annoucement.
   • 26 Feb 2021: Updated outages and thermal fuel deratings. Included the operation of a third Rankine unit as per Genesis' annoucement
   • 23 Mar 2021: Updated outages and thermal fuel deratings. Large increase in thermal deratings and therefore risk curves due to change in modelling Ahuroa Gas Storage
   • 20 Apr 2021: Addition of 2022 timeline to the ERCs. Updated outages and thermal fuel deratings. Decrease in thermal deratings due to gas, coal and diesel supply assumption changes led to decrease in risk curves.
   • 30 Apr 2021: Updated outages and thermal fuel deratings. Updated demand forecast from draft to final
   • 27 May 2021: Updated outages for the next 8 months. Thermal deratings updated following changes to coal stockpile and changes to treatment of Ahuroa Stored Gas.
   • 16 Jun 2021: Updated outages for the next 8 months. Thermal deratings updated.