Wholesale datasets

Expected water values - by week and reservoir

The Jade modelling package is used to determine expected water values at each of the major reservoirs on a weekly basis. Both the inputs and the outputs of that weekly analysis are made publicly available. The open source Jade model and the accompanying documentation can be obtained from GitHub.

At the beginning of each calendar year we run Jade in steady state mode to determine an optimal water release policy. The inputs to this annual model run can be found below in the Annual steady state folder within the relevant year folder. The annual steady state run of Jade will be updated if a major change to the electricity system occurs during the year. Simulations of the annual steady state release policy are not undertaken. The so-called cut files from the annual steady state run approximate a water release offer or supply curve and can be found in the EOH (for end of horizon) folder within the relevant year folder. The cut files from the annual steady state run are augmented with updated model inputs each week to compute marginal water values at each reservoir.

The Jade model is run each week throughout the year and both the model inputs and outputs are published in the relevant week folder within the year folder. Week 1 always begins on 1 January, regardless of the day, week 2 begins on 8 January, week 3 begins on 15 January and so on. As noted above, the relevant weekly cut file from the annual steady state solution represents a water release policy that gets revised each week with selected updated model inputs as follows:

• initial reservoir levels are updated based on observed reservoir levels
• demand and fixed generation output is updated based on monthly reconciliation data
• gas and carbon prices are updated (usually on a monthly basis)
• planned generation and HVDC outages are updated based on POCP data.

All of these revised inputs can be seen in the relevant input file for each week. Having revised the release policy with the updated inputs, the release policy is then simulated over all inflow sequences to determine the marginal water values.